Yet, this is simply a question of possibilities idea
By replacing from inside the (1), i have:
That it illustration of Bayes’ Theorem works together the simple circumstances in which you have a couple of hypotheses H and you will J which might be collectively exclusive and you may as one thorough, and you may where one is looking \(\Pr(H \mid Age)\), that is, your chances that H is valid offered proof Age. Exactly what it example of Bayes’ Theorem do are bring that having a means of figuring one to chances, so long as one to knows, first of all, \(\Pr(H)\) and \(\Pr(J)\)-that’s, new a priori logical likelihood of \(H\) and you will \(J\)-as well as have, next, \(\Pr(Elizabeth \mid H)\) and you may \(\Pr(E \middle J)\)-that is, the fresh analytical probability of \(E\) given, respectively, just \(H\) and only \(J\).
The good news is Draper introduces two substantive claims. The first is that the an effective priori probability of the latest hypothesis out of apathy is not less than new a beneficial priori probability of theism, with the intention that you will find
Draper’s next substantive claim is that the combination away from propositions regarding pleasure and you can serious pain that Draper pertains, and you will that’s illustrated of the \(O\)’ is far more likely to be true in the event your hypothesis off indifference holds true than when the theism is valid. Therefore we has
But so long as \(\Pr(T)\) and \(\Pr(O \mid T)\) are not equal to no-that’s surely affordable-(5) and (6) are rewritten because
Read more
